Economic Voting And Brazilian Soy

A Valence, Position And Patrimony Approach

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of economic voting in Brazilian soy-producing municipalities since the turn of the 21st century. It does so by adopting an expanded approach toward economic voting, incorporating not only valence economic voting - voters’ perception of the economy as either good or bad - but also position and patrimony economic voting, that is, analyzing how public policy preferences and asset ownership affect voters’ evaluations of incumbents. In this sense, the article examines how environmental and land policies, two issues that have been especially contentious in Brazilian agribusiness, have impacted behavior at the ballot box. To accomplish its goals, the study relies on a novel dataset that contains information on all 2387 Brazilian soy-producing municipalities, which comprise nearly half of the total of Brazilian cities, and it uses a fixed-effect panel data model. Results confirm the significance of all three kinds of economic voting. Higher soy prices do favor incumbents, while agrarian reform policies harm incumbents’ chances of reelection. Interestingly, soy-producing municipalities have rewarded pro-environment policies since the mid-2000s, contrary to the expectations of the traditional narrative regarding agribusiness.